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Research method

The research presentative will be responsible for the research: (1) political attitude survey data, which is the core of the research, and related data that are explanatory factors for voting behavior (electoral promises, census as regional characteristics, parliamentary minutes) will be acquired and made available on the web. Basic design and work will proceed with the project, including those involved. (2) Analysing the above data will be done collaboratively among six members. The aim is to conduct collaborative research in a way that generates academic emergencies rather than simply displaying the knowledge and ideas of members in parallel.

(1)Updating the system to collect parliamentary proceedings, and supplementing the data of proceedings of both Houses of Representatives:

The minutes of the Congress are published separately on the websites of both the Houses of Representatives and the House of Councilors. Consequently, a cross-sectional search is impossible. In our research, we will automatically collect the data from the above separately published meeting minutes, manage it in one data archive, and expand the system simultaneously to replenish the data.

(2)Collection and analysis of election promise data:

We classified election announcements for all candidates in the 46th and 47th House of Representatives single-member districts and the 24th House of Councilors constituency based on coding categories related to policy areas. We code data using content analysis on matters related to that policy area. In this study, we also supplement election bulletin data for the 48th House of Representatives and the 25th House of Councilors elections.

(3)Supplementation and expansion of census data:

Our current system maintains data by the municipality and meshes for all simple and large-scale surveys conducted in Japan since 1955. In this study, we supplement the 2015 Census data by city, town, village, and mesh (1/2 mesh, one-fourth mesh, one-eighth mesh). Furthermore, we obtain city, ward, town, and village and mesh-based data (1/2 mesh, one-fourth mesh, one-eighth mesh) from the 2020 Census.

(4)Implementation and analysis of the political attitudes panel survey:

For the 49th House of Representatives general election, which will be the next House of Representatives election, a panel survey will be conducted based on the JES VII first wave survey (national voters, pre-election survey for the House of Representatives) and JES VII second wave survey (first wave survey respondents, post-House of Representatives election survey). The survey will include approximately one hundred questions, including questions on political attitudes. At the time of the 26th House of Councilors election in 2024, we will conduct the JES VII 3rd wave survey (2nd wave survey respondents + supplementary national voter name pre-election survey for the House of Councilors election) and the JES VII 4th wave survey (3rd wave). We will conduct a panel survey with respondents (post-election survey for the House of Councilors). There will be approximately one hundred questions, including questions that continue from the conventional JES survey and are consistent with the research objectives mentioned above. We will conduct the JES VII 5th wave survey (4th wave survey respondents + supplementary national voter name post-unified local election survey) in conjunction with the unified local elections in 2025. There will be about seventy questions related to local politics and questions consistent with the research above objectives, which are continuations of the previous JES survey.

(5)Supplementation and expansion of election result data:

Under the current system, all House of Representatives elections since the first House of Representatives election in 1949 under the current constitution, and all House of Councilors elections since the first House of Councilors election in 1944, are organized by city, town, village, and candidate. In this study, we will provide data by city, ward, town, village, candidate, and political party for the 49th House of Representatives election, the 26th House of Councilors election in 2020, and the 50th House of Representatives election in 2020.

 

(6)Collection and analysis of election promise data:

We have election bulletin data for all candidates for the 49th House of Representatives election, single-member districts, all candidates for the 26th House of Councilors election, and all candidates for the 50th House of Representatives election single-member districts in our current system.

(7)Evolution from election research to democracy research through the fusion of multifaceted data:

By integrating and analyzing data from parliamentary minutes and candidates' election bulletins from multiple perspectives, we will integrate election research, parliamentary research, and campaign pledge research, which have traditionally been conducted separately, as a "Functional Study of Democracy." This integration will evolve election research into democracy research. Specifically, in order to ascertain whether or not politicians who were elected in national elections are fulfilling the promises they made when they were elected in the Diet during the period leading up to the next national election, we collected the minutes of all plenary sessions and all committee meetings during the same period. We used the votes on relevant bills and statements, such as questions and answers, in campaign pledges' content analysis. The same content analysis will be conducted for each item used in campaign promises' content analysis. The results of the content analysis of campaign promises made by each Diet member at the time of his or her election will be compared with the results of the content analysis of his or her votes on bills and statements at plenary sessions and all committee meetings of the Diet after his or her election.

 

(8)Holding the AES (Asian Electoral Studies) symposium:

Our research organization has been conducting international joint research on voting behavior with the Election Research Center of National Chengchi University in Taiwan and the Korean Electoral Society for the past 20 years and has co-published books with publications such as the University of Michigan Press in the United States. We hold the AES symposium every year.

(9)International dissemination of intellectual assets

In order to provide more convenient intellectual assets to researchers affiliated with overseas research institutions, we will promote the translation of various information into English and make it publicly available. We have already finished translating the codebook into English for all but a portion of the attitude survey data, and we will proceed with translating the remaining data into English, promoting open data with high international academic value.

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